We all know that the next series will be on screen in Spring 2025, no matter what happens. This is mainly down to the fact that they filmed it straight after what they call Season One (but most of us call Series14), allowing Gatwa to do other work. It's in the can, and unless someone wants to write it off for tax purposes (as happened with the DC / HBO Max Batgirl movie a couple of years ago) we'll get to see it next year.
What happens next is the mystery, and there are concerns.
In the summer, around the time that the programme was being plugged (though hardly prominently) at San Diego Comic-Con, RTD was upbeat and told interviewers that the third new series would likely be commissioned in the autumn. He's now saying something different.
The issue these days is the co-production deal. Left to Bad Wolf / BBC, this would no doubt have been a fairly speedy process, but we now have the House of Mouse in the equation.
Their input, partly editorial but primarily financial, is crucial. Were Disney to pull funding, the series would really need to find another partner in order to afford a full season of the quality we are now used to.
RTD is now saying that the decision to commission a third series won't be made until after S15 has aired. This would take us to late spring / early summer, depending on the broadcast dates, before they even begin to make the next series.
And that's if it happens at all.
In my opinion, there is only one reason why Disney would hold back their decision to re-commit: they were not impressed by S14 alone, and want to see how S15 fares, and it will all come down to income against expenditure.
It cannot be about the quality of the new stories in the can - as they will already have been screened for them. If they liked the response to S14, and are happy with the new batch of episodes, then why not go ahead and commit to more?
S14 may have had good audience figures for younger adults, but that was the only demographic which was reported as encouraging. As I've stated before, RTD was expected to increase the audience share for that demographic - but I'm sure it was supposed to be as well as the others, not instead of.
Overall, the BBC claimed to be happy due to audience share / weekly placing. These things are of some importance to Disney as well, but they are not a public service broadcaster. It's a business, and they want to see new subscribers and increased advertising revenue.
If the new episodes can't deliver that, Disney will not reinvest. They've just shown that they can be perfectly ruthless when it comes to a series that doesn't meet expectations, even a prestige one - just look at Star Wars: The Acolyte, which has been cancelled after one season.
The big concern is that S15 is simply more of the same as S14, which under-performed when judged against most criteria of success.
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